You may view the 5 minute update this week via audio:
In this week’s 5 minute update, we focused on:
1) The current status of the Israel / PLO peace process
US Secretary of State John Kerry plans to return to the Middle East in the coming week in an effort to restart direct peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians. Kerry is working to try to resolve several areas of disagreement between Israel and the Palestinians. These include defining the borders of a Palestinian state, the release of Palestinian prisoners and the Palestinian demand that Israel stop building Jewish homes in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Israel is only willing to freeze building Jewish homes outside the main settlement blocs. The Palestinians want all 123 prisoners incarcerated since the 1993 Oslo Accords to be released. Israel is only willing to release 60 in three stages. The Palestinians want Israel to agree that the peace talks will be based upon the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital. Israel believes that these borders are indefensible and defining them before talks begin will weaken their negotiating position. As a result, Kerry is trying to get both sides to agree to a memorandum of understanding which will guide the talks. Western diplomats are suggesting that these plans are being influenced by a Middle East policy document put out by the James Baker Institute for Public Policy at Rice University in March. James Baker was a former Secretary of State under George Bush the father. Once the talks are initiated, they would last six to nine months.
The Baker policy paper is entitled, “Re-engaging the Israelis and the Palestinians: Why an American Role in Initiating Israeli-Palestinian Negotiations is Necessary and How It Can Be Accomplished.”
We will now detail some of the highlights of the suggestions of the Baker document. It is guided by the following principles.
1) Resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict through meaningful, direct negotiations will require substantial U.S. engagement.
2) Any successful American approach must clearly define a political horizon with Terms of Reference for an acceptable end state for both parties.
3) The mechanism for conflict resolution necessitates a dual approach of “fast” and “graduated” negotiating tracks in which areas of sufficient agreement can be negotiated and implemented to facilitate agreement on longer-term issues.
4) Regional and international support is essential for both parties and for the U.S. to resolve the conflict through an agreed upon monitoring and oversight structure.
Fundamental Concepts for Successful U.S. Engagement consists of the following:
1) Clarify U.S. Terms of Reference (TOR) for negotiations toward an end state
2) Adopt the principle “what has been agreed upon shall be implemented” based on understandings between the parties, and with guarantees from the international community, that all measures implemented shall be without prejudice to remaining issues and subject to the TOR and rules of engagement of the negotiating process. The essence of this principle is to transform the economic, social, and security environment on the ground while working concurrently to achieve breakthroughs on permanent status issues; and
3) Maximize regional and international support, building the Arab Peace Initiative of 2002 into a new international framework, and attempt to engage Hamas in accordance with the accepted framework for negotiations led by the Palestinian Authority (PA).
Five U.S.-Led Actions Toward a Peaceful Two-State Solution
1) Announce American TOR for Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, including principles for the end state and modalities to support the negotiations;
2) Conclude parallel U.S.-Israeli and U.S.-Palestinian Memoranda of Understanding (MOU);
3) Define and broker negotiations along a “fast” and a “graduated” negotiating track
4) Engage regional and international support through a new international group expanded from the Quartet (the United Nations, United States, EuropeanUnion and Russia)
5) Facilitate a monitoring and oversight structure for negotiations.
U.S. engagement should aim to achieve a comprehensive Palestinian-Israeli peace agreement as a first step toward achieving a broader Arab-Israeli peace, while reshaping realities on the ground. The parameters of the end state should be broad enough to allow buy-in from both parties and regional stakeholders, while at the same time be sufficiently defined to ensure breakthroughs and avoid a deadlock in negotiations. They should also be linked to the Arab Peace Initiative. The objective of the fast-track negotiations in particular is to create positive developments on the ground and to lead to a more sustainable path at the negotiating table.
Territory, Borders, and Settlements:
1) As a result of mutual trust building, reach agreement that the quantity of territory included in the West Bank, Gaza, and Dead Sea territorial waters as defined by the 1967 lines will equal the amount of territory of the Palestinian state following land swaps with Israel equal in size and value.
2) Identify and transfer territory in locations that both sides agree will be included within Palestinian borders.
3) Identify territory that both sides agree will be included within Israeli borders, and prevent settlement expansion into territory that could be included in Palestinian territory as part of a final agreement. At the same time, Israeli officials should present in the graduated negotiating track a proposal to transfer territory that is equal in size and value to the Palestinian Authority (PA).
Security
1) Expand Palestinian internal security capacities, particularly by constructing police stations, upgrading equipment, and developing the justice system.
2) Assure Israeli security issues through an initial U.S.-Israel MOU.
Refugees
1) Integrate the Palestinian refugee camps in the West Bank into the existing system of municipalities and local councils. The PA should also work with Israel to identify refugee groups living in particularly hazardous conditions in their present areas of residence, such as in Lebanon, and facilitate their relocation to the West Bank based on special needs or humanitarian considerations.
Jerusalem
1) Agree to realize two capitals for two states in Jerusalem on the basis of the 1967 border, while recognizing the principle that Jewish neighborhoods will become part of Israel and Palestinian neighborhoods will become part of Palestine.
2) Form joint planning teams to prepare a Ten-Year Development Plan for the greater Jerusalem metropolitan area, emphasizing undisturbed access to and from the city and improving water supply, electricity, sewage, and drainage systems, as well as solid waste facilities and other key infrastructure.
3) Reopen Palestinian institutions in East Jerusalem and halt Palestinian house demolition and displacement, reintegrate East Jerusalem with the West Bank, and allow for Palestinian development in the city and the establishment of a Palestinian municipality.
4) Establish a committee for the coordinated management of the city, with particular attention to its holy sites.
Prisoners
1) In support of the peace process, release Palestinian and Arab prisoners.
Defining the Core Concept for Potential U.S. Engagement
To make progress on the Israeli-Palestinian front, President Obama and his incoming foreign policy team will have to demonstrate a strong and sustained personal commitment to the issue at an early stage. President Obama will need to develop and maintain personal understandings with Prime Minister Netanyahu and with President Abbas, and his periodic input helping to define agreed aims for the next stage of negotiations will be necessary. Based on understandings reached, President Obama may from time to time have to mobilize the support of key international leaders. Secretary of State John Kerry will need to establish a strong Middle East team to plan, oversee, and implement a comprehensive strategy for the entire region. On the Israeli- Palestinian issue, it is important that a U.S. negotiations support team work closely together with national security and development agencies in order to combine “top- down” and “bottom-up” work in support of reaching a sustainable two-state solution. The Pentagon, NATO Central Command, the CIA, and other intelligence organizations will have to adopt a hands-on approach to create the necessary deterrence against militant state and nonstate actors in the Middle East and work with all concerned parties to prevent arms smuggling, terrorist action, and the proliferation of weapons, combining this work with an ongoing action to strengthen the already prevailing regional security coordination.
Renewed U.S. Leadership
The following three strategies attempt to recognize and balance the difficulty of restarting negotiations, with clear indicators by the U.S. that the current status quo is unacceptable to American national security interests and the U.S. vision of the end state of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict:
1) Clarify the Terms of Reference for negotiations : Both parties and the international community need a unified understanding of the end state that negotiations will be working toward. The U.S. should define and proceed to help broker its own vision for a Palestinian state living side by side in peace and security with Israel.
2) Adopt the principle “what has been agreed upon shall be implemented” : While working toward a common conception of the end state, a focus on implementation in issue areas with sufficient agreement opens the way to substantial Palestinian state-building efforts that transform realities on the ground, sustain the two-state solution, and improve prospects for conflict resolution. Agreement on permanent status issues, or elements thereof, should be implemented through coordinated measures based on an understanding between the parties, guaranteed by the international group, and without prejudice to remaining issues. A comprehensive Palestinian- Israeli peace agreement can only be reached when all permanents status issues have been settled.
3) Maximize regional and international support : On the diplomatic front, Washington will have to work together with Arab Gulf states, the EU, and Israel to provide fiscal support and border security to Jordan; and with Egypt, Israel, Palestine, Qatar, and Turkey in order to stabilize the situation in Gaza and prevent arms smuggling. All concerned parties, including the UN and other international bodies, should provide for economic growth and private investment, as well as convene an international conference following the ground rules laid out at the Madrid Conference of October 1991.
Defining U.S.-Announced Terms of Reference
Drawing on past experience, any restart of peace negotiations should be based on clear Terms of Reference and end-game parameters creating a political horizon and framework for effective negotiations to reach a comprehensive Palestinian-Israeli peace agreement, which is a necessary first step toward achieving a comprehensive Arab-Israeli peace agreement. The Terms of Reference for Israeli-Palestinian permanent status negotiations (PSN) should include the principles of international law, relevant UN resolutions, the principles of the Madrid Peace Conference and the Arab Peace Initiative, and should refer to progress achieved in previous negotiations. Based on these Terms of Reference, the parameters for the end game should be laid out on borders (including territorial aspects of Jerusalem and settlements), Jerusalem, refugees, security, water, and state-to-state relations.
The parameters for an end game should be broad enough to allow buy-in from both parties and regional stakeholders, and at the same time be sufficiently defined to ensure a breakthrough and avoid a deadlock in negotiations. Based on the Arab Peace Initiative and progress made in previous negotiations, the following parameters should be adopted:
1) The U.S. government, after a short dialogue with the parties, should announce American Terms of Reference (TOR) for negotiations. The American terms would not oblige either side to endorse the TOR, but would call for both parties to gravitate toward the principles laid out by Washington. This first action would signal strong U.S. engagement in the issue while moving Israelis and Palestinians to start planning for direct negotiations under the broad U.S. TOR.
2) During earlier negotiations under Prime Ministers Ehud Olmert and Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli side proposed that the essence of a two-state solution clearly implies that Israel is the nation-state of the Jewish people, and Palestine the nation-state of the Palestinian people.
Terms of Reference
The U.S. TOR will define America’s approach to the negotiations and its envisaged outcome, without obliging either side to fully endorse all provisions; yet it will call upon both sides to start negotiations under the framework of the guidelines laid out by the U.S. TOR. The key understandings to be clarified in the U.S. TOR are below:
1) Goals of the end state: The resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will enable the State of Israel, realizing the Jewish people’s right to self-determination, and the State of Palestine, realizing the Palestinian people’s right to self-determination, to live side by side in good neighborly relations, in peace and security.
2) Regional outcome: Progress in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process will be an integral part in the promotion of a wider, comprehensive peace between Israel, Lebanon, Syria, and all Arab and Islamic nations, as laid out in the Saudi Peace Initiative of 2002.
3) International framework: Past UN resolutions, including the recent UNGA vote on Palestine’s nonmember observer state status, should inform the negotiations.
4) Territory and settlements: Negotiations on territory and on the final recognized and secure border between Israel and Palestine will be based on the June 4, 1967, cease-fire line and agreed-upon swaps on a one-to-one basis. Israeli settlers will be evacuated from Palestinian territory within the agreed borders.
5) Refugees: A comprehensive resolution of the Palestinian refugee problem will be negotiated and agreed upon by the parties in accordance with the Arab Peace Initiative and the goals of the end state as defined above.
6) Jerusalem: Jerusalem will be the capital of two states on the basis of the 1967 borders, while recognizing the principle that Jewish neighborhoods should become part of Israel, and Palestinian neighborhoods should become part of Palestine, within the framework of land swaps of equal size and value. Full access to holy sites for religious exercise will be granted to all religions on the basis of an agreed special regime.
7) Security: There shall be complete Israeli withdrawal from Palestinian territory, a Palestinian state with limited arms, and a multinational force presence, with the creation of regional security arrangements in line with the obligations referred to in the Israeli-Egyptian and Israeli-Jordanian Treaties of Peace.
8) Resources: The resolution of the conflict will include an equitable and reasonable allocation of all shared resources.
9) State-to-state relations: Relations shall be based on the principle of equal sovereignty of states, creating the supportive conditions for good neighborly relations between the two states.
Modalities Supporting the TOR
1) Negotiations will be pursued on two tracks: a fast and a graduated track. The U.S. will propose to both sides a negotiating plan for every six months. At the end of six-month negotiation periods, the parties will conclude implementation agreements on the basis of the principle “what has been agreed upon will be implemented.”
2) International support: Regional powers, particularly Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, and Turkey, will be asked to support the Palestinian state-building effort and to promote, together with Israel, regional security; and in accordance with the U.S., the other Quartet powers, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, and Turkey will form an international group to oversee and support the ongoing negotiation process
3) In accordance with the parties, a monitoring and oversight structure for the negotiation and implementation of agreements will be established.
An agreement to divide Jerusalem and establish a PLO state is a tribulation event.
The link to these articles are as follows:
1) Kerry’s peace plan includes ‘settlement freeze outside major blocs’
2) The Baker Paper: Kerry’s guide to Mideast peacemaking
3) Baker Public Policy Paper: Engaging The Israelis and The Palestinians: Why An American Role In Initiating Israeli-Palestinian
Negotiatians Is Necessary And How It Can Be Accomplished
4) PA negotiator: US efforts alone won’t bring peace
From a Biblical prophetic perspective, the reason why the God of Israel would allow these events to happen is because it will result in the end of the exile of the house of Jacob and the reunification of the 12 tribes of Israel (Ephraim and Judah).
We will to be “watchmen on the walls of Jerusalem” and we will not rest until the God of Israel makes Jerusalem a praise in the earth (Isaiah 62).
Shalom in Yeshua the Messiah,
Eddie Chumney
Hebraic Heritage Ministries Int’l