You may view the 5 minute update this week via audio:
In this week’s 5 minute update, we focused on:
1) The results of the Israeli elections and what it means for the peace process
With over 99% of the votes counted, the Israeli elections results are as follows:
1) Likud ………….. 30 seats
2) Zionist Union …… 24 seats
3) Joint Arab List …. 13 seats
4) Yesh Atid ………. 11 seats
5) Kulanu …………. 10 seats
6) Jewish Home ……… 8 seats
7) Shas ……………. 7 seats
8) United Torah Judaism …. 6 seats
9) Yisrael Beytenu ….. 6 seats
10) Meretz …………. 5 seats
The Israel Knesset consists of 120 members. In order to form a government, you need a coalition of parties of at least 61 members. Benjamin Netanyahu is the leader of the “Likud” political party. Since the “Likud” political party got the most votes in the Israeli election, Netanyahu will be given the opportunity to talk with other parties to form a coalition government. When he does, who is most likely to join his government coalition ?
Prior to the elections, Netanyahu said that he will not form a unity government. A unity government is when two of the largest parties in Israel form a government together. Therefore, Netanyahu said that he will not form a government with the Zionist camp party. The Zionist camp party is headed by Isaac Herzog. He is in partnership with Tzipi Livni in leading the party. In the last Israeli government, Tzipi Livni was in Netanyahu’s government and was the chief negotiator in the peace process with the Palestinians. However because of her independent thinking and criticism of Netanyahu’s policies, Netanyahu fired her along with the leader of the party, Yesh Atid, Yair Lapid who was also in Netanyahu’s government and criticized his policies. As a result, it is highly unlikely that the Zionist camp and Yesh Atid will be in Netanyahu’s new government coalition. The united Arab list party has also indicated that they will not be in Netanyahu’s government.
In past Netanyahu governments, the ultra-Orthodox parties of Shas and United Torah Judaism have been in his coalition. Shas chairman Aryeh Deri said that his party would support Binyamin Netanyahu as Prime Minister saying: “We are with you Binyamin Netanyahu. Our public and your public are brothers.” Furthermore, Deri has said that there is no possibility that he would sit in a coalition together with Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid. This is because in the last government, Yair Lapid backed a new law that would require the ultra-Orthodox to serve in the Israeli military. If they would not serve in the military, Lapid advocated criminal sanctions against them. The ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judasim, oppose this law.
MK Ya’akov Litzman of the ultra-Orthodox party, United Torah Judaism, also said that his party would not sit in government with Yesh Atid and its leader, Yair Lapid. Litzman said, “I will not sit with Lapid. Plain and simple.” Litzman added that Lapid can repent but that will not change his mind about being a part of the same coalition as Lapid. “If he wants to repent then let him repent. Let him be in the opposition for one term, praise the yeshiva students who study, support them in budgets and child allowances, and then in the next term we may sit with him,” he said. “As far as I know the position of the Council of Torah Sages is the same – that we will absolutely not sit in a government with Lapid” added Litzman.
Israel Prime Minister Benjamin said that he opposes criminal sanctions for ultra-Orthodox draft dodgers approved by his government. We are one Israeli people. I think the whole issue of criminal sanctions that were imposed is something that should be done away with. A Jew should not have to go to prison for studying the torah.”
In response, Yesh Atid Chairman Yair Lapid said that the Israeli High Court will never allow the cancellation of a law passed last year that stipulates that if the target number of ultra-Orthodox draftees into the Israeli military is not reached by 2017, ultra-Orthodox draft-dodgers will be treated the same as others who refuse to serve in the Israeli army and thus will be subject to criminal sanctions. According to Lapid, “they cannot cancel the Security Service Law – all of military enlistment to the IDF in Israel is based on it. So what do they care to promise something that they know can’t happen. We cannot cancel the equality of the burden. The state of Israel cannot afford to cancel, and I will certainly not sit in a government that will cancel it,” he said. “It is a holy principle that all citizens of the country have the same rights,” Lapid continued. “We will not allow this equality of the burden to be overthrown or shot down. We will not sit in any government that tries to do so.” Finally, Lapid said that he will not sit in government with Benjamin Netanyahu.
The Meretz has also said that it is also opposed to being in government with Benjamin Netanyahu.
The new party to this election, Kulanu, headed by former Likud political party member, Moshe Kahlon, said that he would join any government where he can help bring down Israel housing prices.
In the last elections, Yisrael Beytenu chairman, Avigdor Lieberman ran on a joint election ticket with the Likud political party of Benjamin Netanyahu. In this election, Lieberman said that there was “no chance” that his Yisrael Beytenu will sit in the same coalition with the leftist Meretz party who won 5 seats.
As a result of all these things, it is most likely that Netanyahu will form a religious right government of Likud, Kulanu, Jewish Home, Shas, United Torah Judaism and Yisrael Beytenu. This government would have 67 seats.
US President Barack Obama gave a cold response to the election victory of Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by waiting 2 days to congratulate him for winning the Israeli elections. Furthermore, the morning after the elections found US-Israel relations more shaky than ever before. The US State Department made a few things clear. US Secretary of State John Kerry’s call to congratulate Netanyahu on his election victory was very cold. The two did not talk policy at all, said spokeswoman Jen Psaki. In fact, the message that the US is conveying to Israel is that everything other than the most routine cooperation – security, intelligence, and military – is open to question.
The Palestinian responded to the Israeli election results by saying that there was no other choice but to “reexamine” relations with Israel. “Israel must choose: peace with the Palestinian people or the continued occupation of the land of Palestine,” Abbas declared. Saeb Erekat, chief Palestinian negotiator in peace talks with Israel said that Netanyahu’s election victory showed “the success of a campaign based on settlements, racism, apartheid and the denial of the fundamental rights of the Palestinian people”.
The day before the March 17 Israeli elections, Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Netanyahu vowed that if reelected he will build thousands of homes in East Jerusalem to prevent future concessions to the Palestinians saying, “I won’t let that happen. My friends and I in Likud will preserve the unity of Jerusalem. We will continue to build in Jerusalem, we will add thousands of housing units, and in the face of all the (international) pressure, we will persist and continue to develop our eternal capital.” Netanyahu further said: “I think that anyone who establishes a Palestinian state and evacuates land is giving radical Islam a staging ground against the state of Israel. This is the reality that was created here over the past few years. Whoever ignores it is burying their heads in the sand. The left is doing this, burying its head in the sand time after time. We are realistic and we understand. The real test is who will build the next government. I am not going to fold. They would not be concentrating efforts against me if they didn’t understand that I am the last line of defense. They understand this. We faced tremendous pressures and we will continue to work.” Furthermore, Netanyahu said that he objects to a Palestinian state saying that Israel faces a series of international initiatives meant to return it to pre-1967 borders and to divide Jerusalem. In an interview, he was asked, “If you are PM there will be no Palestinian state?” He replied, “Indeed.”
The Obama administration reacted to Netanyahu’s words by saying that there will be consequences if Netanyahu no longer supports an independent Palestinian state. A senior Obama administration official said: “We are signaling that if the Israeli government’s position is no longer to pursue a Palestinian state, we’re going to have to broaden the spectrum of options we pursue going forward.” Another official said: “There are policy ramifications for what Netanyahu said.” While the US is indicating that it would not cut back its financial and military support for Israel, it did indicate that it be may less supportive of Israel at the UN Security Council. Senior American officials said that the Obama administration would still be evaluating all its options but strongly suggested that the US could ease its staunch opposition to Palestinians turning to the UN Security Council to create a state. Carefully planted rumors have been circulating around the US for weeks that the US is considering presenting a new peace plan at the UN Security Council that would bypass direct negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority and attempt to impose a solution to the conflict. A second official confirmed the US could decide not to veto Security Council action. The officials were not authorized to speak by name about internal deliberations and commented only on condition of anonymity.
US State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said that the US was still “not going to get ahead of any decisions about what the United States would do with regard to potential action at the UN Security Council.” Asked repeatedly about whether the US would maintain its veto policy, Psaki said simply that “the prime minister’s recent statements call into question his commitment to a two-state solution…but that doesn’t mean that we’ve made a decision about changing our position with respect to the UN.” However, the statement in itself – a refusal to commit to a veto – is itself a changed position. The New York Times reported that according to several administration officials, the Obama administration is now seriously considering agreeing to the passage of a United Nations Security Council resolution “embodying the principles of a two-state solution that would include Israel’s 1967 borders with Palestine and mutually agreed swaps of territory.”
US Secretary of State, John Kerry, reaffirmed that the US “committed” to a two-state solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict saying, “The position of the United States with respect to our long expressed hope, the Republicans and the Democrats alike (and) many presidents of the last 50 years or more, has always been for peace and President Obama remains committed to a two-state solution,” Kerry said.
After his election victory, Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu clarified his position on a Palestinian state saying, “I never retracted my speech in Bar-Ilan University six years ago calling for a demilitarized Palestinian state that recognized the Jewish state,” Netanyahu said. “I want a sustainable peaceful two-state solution,” he said. “But for that, circumstances have to change.” Netanyahu blamed Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas for being responsible for part of that change, saying that he refuses to recognize Israel as a Jewish state, and has made a pact with Hamas that calls for Israel’s destruction. He also said that history has shown that all territory vacated in the Middle East is taken over by Islamist forces. “If you want to get peace, you’ve got to get the Palestinian leadership to abandon their pact with Hamas and engage in genuine negotiations with Israel for an achievable peace,” he said. “We have to also make sure that we don’t have ISIS coming in to that territory. It’s only two dozen miles away from our border.”
The honeymoon period for any new Israeli government will be short, and neither the EU nor the US will have much patience for promises of developing new policies toward the Palestinians, according to Western diplomatic officials. Israel will need an initiative to convince both the EU and US of its seriousness in working toward a two-state solution, the officials said.
The US special envoy to last year’s Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, Martin Indyk, said that if the new Netanyahu government does not launch a diplomatic initiative or opposes a Palestinian state, Israel will likely face a UN Security Council resolution proposed by all permanent members designed to “lay out the principles of a two state solution.” If this happens, Indyk expects that a resolution would be written against Israel’s will. He said: “If there is a government in Israel after these elections that decides to pursue a two state solution then there is a way forward. It begins with coordinating an initiative with the United States. And then, together with the US, looking to Egypt and Jordan and the resurrection of the Arab peace initiative, to find a way to provide the Palestinians both with an Egyptian-Jordanian anchor, and the political cover of the Arab peace initiative.” Indyk said that in this arrangement there would have to be a “freeze for a freeze:” an Israeli freeze of settlement activity, and a freeze of Palestinian international activity against Israel.”
But if there is not an Israeli initiative or support for a two state solution, Indyk warned, there will be “international actions” pursued not by the Palestinians, but rather by the international community “in terms of a security council resolution” to “lay out and preserve the principles of a two-state solution in the future.” By saying this resolution may come from all five members of the UN Security Council, he hinted that this could be an American proposal.
In addition, European Union member states are planning new sanctions against Israel that will be implemented if peace negotiations with Palestinians do not resume following Israeli elections. The proposed plan would include “sanctions against companies that conduct business over the Green Line, support in the legal proceedings of Palestinians in the issue of settlements and also renewing the proposal to create a Palestinian state through the Security Council,” according to an Israeli official who met recently with European leaders. According to one of the Israeli officials briefed by European leaders, the process of imposing sanctions was delayed by elections, but will likely be picked up should peace efforts not restart after Netanyahu forms his new government. “For some of the countries there is the hope that after the elections there is a chance to renew the negotiations with the Palestinians. But now it does not seem like that will happen, and therefore they are planning to shift into a higher gear,” the official said.
European officials also want to hear more positive reaction from Israel regarding the Special Privileged Partnership that the EU offered both Israel and the Palestinians in 2013 if they complete a peace deal. Many in Brussels see the failure of the Netanyahu government to jump at the offer as a “missed opportunity,” even though – according to the officials – the government is more interested in a closer relationship with the EU than it wants to let on. According to the officials, EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini is saving “for a strategic moment” the implementation of measures based on conclusions of the EU Council in 2012 regarding EU-wide labeling of settlement products. The conclusions, issued after a meeting of EU foreign ministers, said “the European Union expresses its commitment to ensure that – in line with international law – all agreements between the State of Israel and the European Union must unequivocally and explicitly indicate their inapplicability to the territories occupied by Israel in 1967, namely the Golan Heights, the West Bank including East Jerusalem, and the Gaza Strip.” That wording formed the basis of a long, drawn-out fight between Israel and the EU in 2013 over new guidelines for Israel’s acceptance in the EU’s well-financed Horizon 2020 EU R&D program.
An agreement to divide Jerusalem and establish a PLO state is a tribulation event.
The link to these articles are as follows:
1) ‘Almost Final’ Results Published by Elections Committee
2) Netanyahu: There Will be No Unity Government
3) Liberman: ‘No Chance’ We’ll Sit with Meretz
4) Litzman Says ‘Yes’ to Meretz but ‘No’ to Lapid
5) Litzman Repeats: No Way We’ll Sit with Lapid
6) Deri: We’ll Support Netanyahu, There’s No Other Scenario
7) Deri says almost impossible for Shas to sit with Yesh Atid in next government
8) Criminal sanctions for haredi draft dodgers should end, says Netanyahu
9) Lapid: I Won’t Sit in Coalition that Repeals Haredi Draft Law
10) Lapid rules out endorsing Netanyahu
11) Obama’s absent congratulations bad omen for bilateral ties
12) Abbas: We Have No Choice but ‘Reexamine’ Ties with Israel
13) Abbas: Israel has no serious intentions to have peace
14) Netanyahu win dashes prospect for a thaw with Obama
15) After Netanyahu win, Obama takes off the gloves
16) Netanyahu: We Are Fighting for the Jewish Future
17) Zionism means not being spectators to decisions that can seal our fate, Netanyahu says
18) From annexation to right of return: What the parties say about the Palestinians
19) Netanyahu: If reelected, I won’t establish a Palestinian state
20) Obama Administration Reaffirms ‘2-State Solution’ Commitment
21) EU said to be planning fresh sanctions against Israel
22) US, EU to test Israel’s sincerity on Palestine after elections’
23) Indyk: Get ready for UNSC resolution proposed not by Palestinians, but int’l community
24) Report: US revisiting Israel policy after PM’s rejection of Palestinian state
25) NY Times: Obama may agree to UN resolution on ’67 borders after Netanyahu campaign rhetoric
26) US officials: Washington could back UN resolution on Palestine
27) Netanyahu backs off opposition to a Palestinian state
From a Biblical prophetic perspective, the reason why the God of Israel would allow these events to happen is because it will result in the end of the exile of the house of Jacob and the reunification of the 12 tribes of Israel (Ephraim and Judah).
We will to be “watchmen on the walls of Jerusalem” and we will not rest until the God of Israel makes Jerusalem a praise in the earth (Isaiah 62).
Shalom in Yeshua the Messiah,
Eddie Chumney
Hebraic Heritage Ministries Int’l